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Caldiero Terme vs Adriese — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Caldiero Terme
Caldiero Terme
FT
4 – 2
Adriese
Adriese
12/22/2019Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Round 19Stadio Comunale di Caldiero (Caldiero)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Caldiero Terme37%
×Draw26%
Adriese37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Caldiero Terme
1.33
Adriese
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 48 home / 101 away

creates per match

Caldiero Terme
1.29
Adriese
1.36

allows per match

Caldiero Terme
1.31
Adriese
1.36

finishing

Caldiero Terme+0.00on par
Adriese+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caldiero Terme ↓

Adriese →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Caldiero Terme or draw
63%
Caldiero Terme or Adriese
74%
Draw or Adriese
63%

Winning margin

Caldiero Terme wins by 2+
17%
Adriese wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Caldiero Terme 1+ goals
74%
Caldiero Terme 2+ goals
38%
Caldiero Terme 3+ goals
15%
Adriese 1+ goals
74%
Adriese 2+ goals
38%
Adriese 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Caldiero Terme (draw refunded)
50%
Adriese (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Caldiero Terme at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.31 · 48 matches

Adriese away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.36 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Caldiero Terme attack 1.29 + Adriese defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.33

Adriese attack 1.36 + Caldiero Terme defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Caldiero Terme scores more
37%
level
26%
Adriese scores more
37%

Caldiero Terme at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Caldiero Terme will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Caldiero Terme 4–2 Adriese

Caldiero Terme beat Adriese 4-2 in Serie D - Girone C on December 22, 2019.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale di Caldiero (Caldiero).