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Caldense vs Varginha EC — Mineiro - 2 2026

Caldense
Caldense
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Varginha EC
Varginha EC
Fabio Sa 77'
5/25/2024Mineiro - 2Mineiro - 2 · Round 5Estádio Dr. Ronaldo Junqueira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Caldense42%
×Draw32%
Varginha EC26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Caldense
1.06
Varginha EC
0.76

Caldense creates 39% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 26 away

creates per match

Caldense
0.67
Varginha EC
0.92

allows per match

Caldense
0.60
Varginha EC
1.46

finishing

Caldense+0.00on par
Varginha EC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 73Over: 2773%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 65Yes: 3565%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caldense ↓

Varginha EC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Caldense or draw
74%
Caldense or Varginha EC
68%
Draw or Varginha EC
58%

Winning margin

Caldense wins by 2+
17%
Varginha EC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Caldense 1+ goals
65%
Caldense 2+ goals
29%
Caldense 3+ goals
9%
Varginha EC 1+ goals
53%
Varginha EC 2+ goals
18%
Varginha EC 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Caldense (draw refunded)
62%
Varginha EC (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Caldense at home — creates 0.67, concedes 0.60 · 15 matches

Varginha EC away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.46 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Caldense attack 0.67 + Varginha EC defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.06

Varginha EC attack 0.92 + Caldense defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Caldense scores more
42%
level
32%
Varginha EC scores more
26%

Caldense at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Caldense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

77'
Fabio Sa

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Caldense vs Varginha EC

Caldense beat Varginha EC 1-0 in Mineiro - 2 on May 25, 2024.

Goals: Fabio Sa (77').

The match was played at Estádio Dr. Ronaldo Junqueira in Poços de Caldas, Minas Gerais.