Caldense 2–1 Portuguesa RJ: Result & Stats

Caldense

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Portuguesa RJ

Denilson Gabionetta 80'

Mariotto 64'

Anderson Cavalo 42'

5/4/2019

Serie D · Round 1Estádio Dr. Ronaldo Junqueira (Poços de Caldas, Minas Gerais)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Caldense32%

×Draw33%

Portuguesa RJ35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CaldenseExpected goals in this matchPortuguesa RJ

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.86

0.92

Caldense

0.86

Portuguesa RJ

0.92

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 28 home / 46 away

0.89

creates per match

0.87

0.96

allows per match

0.83

creates per match

Caldense

0.89

Portuguesa RJ

0.87

allows per match

Caldense

0.96

Portuguesa RJ

0.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Caldense+0.00on par

Portuguesa RJ+0.00on par

Total goals

Under74
Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caldense ↓

Portuguesa RJ →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–116%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

53%47%2.5

26%74%3.5

11%89%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Caldense or draw

65%

Caldense or Portuguesa RJ

67%

Draw or Portuguesa RJ

68%

Winning margin

Caldense wins by 2+

11%

Portuguesa RJ wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Caldense 1+ goals

58%

Caldense 2+ goals

21%

Caldense 3+ goals

6%

Portuguesa RJ 1+ goals

60%

Portuguesa RJ 2+ goals

23%

Portuguesa RJ 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Caldense (draw refunded)

48%

Portuguesa RJ (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Caldense at home — creates 0.89, concedes 0.96 · 28 matches

Portuguesa RJ away — creates 0.87, concedes 0.83 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Caldense attack 0.89 + Portuguesa RJ defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.86

Portuguesa RJ attack 0.87 + Caldense defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Caldense scores more

32%

level

33%

Portuguesa RJ scores more

35%

Portuguesa RJ at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Portuguesa RJ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

Arlen← Cássio

42'

Anderson Cavalo

46'

Júlio← Lucas Morais

52'

Mariotto← João Victor

64'

69'

79'

80'

81'

Vinícius Fininho← Denilson Gabionetta

Caldense

Portuguesa

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Marcus Paulo

46'▲Júlio←▼Lucas Morais

52'▲Mariotto←▼João Victor

81'▲Vinícius Fininho←▼Denilson Gabionetta

Caldense substitutes

JúlioMariottoFininhoFernandoAlysonArturOliveiraMacielLucasTchêVelTharsus

Manager: Edson Souza

20'▲Arlen←▼Cássio

69'▲Romarinho←▼Dieguinho

79'▲Rodriguinho←▼Muniz

Portuguesa RJ substitutes

ArlenRomarinhoRodriguinhoRanuleSilvaCearáLeviMarcão