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Caldense vs Mamoré — Mineiro - 2 2026

Caldense
Caldense
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Mamoré
Mamoré
Fabio Sa 37'
Joel Araujo 90+6'
6/6/2024Mineiro - 2Mineiro - 2 · Round 7Estádio Dr. Ronaldo Junqueira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Caldense38%
×Draw37%
Mamoré26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Caldense
0.85
Mamoré
0.64

Caldense creates 33% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 24 away

creates per match

Caldense
0.67
Mamoré
0.67

allows per match

Caldense
0.60
Mamoré
1.04

finishing

Caldense+0.00on par
Mamoré+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 81Over: 1981%Under
  • Under81
  • Over19

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 73Yes: 2773%No
  • No73
  • Yes27

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caldense ↓

Mamoré →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–023%
0–114%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–15%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (23%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
77%23%1.5
44%56%2.5
19%81%3.5
6%94%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Caldense or draw
74%
Caldense or Mamoré
63%
Draw or Mamoré
62%

Winning margin

Caldense wins by 2+
13%
Mamoré wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Caldense 1+ goals
57%
Caldense 2+ goals
21%
Caldense 3+ goals
5%
Mamoré 1+ goals
47%
Mamoré 2+ goals
14%
Mamoré 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Caldense (draw refunded)
60%
Mamoré (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
15%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Caldense at home — creates 0.67, concedes 0.60 · 15 matches

Mamoré away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.04 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Caldense attack 0.67 + Mamoré defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.85

Mamoré attack 0.67 + Caldense defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Caldense scores more
38%
level
37%
Mamoré scores more
26%

Caldense at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Caldense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'
Fabio Sa
40'
Alan Calbergue
40'
J. Alves
90+6'
Joel Araujo

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Caldense vs Mamoré

Caldense and Mamoré drew 1-1 in Mineiro - 2 on June 6, 2024.

Goals: Fabio Sa (37'), Joel Araujo (90+6').

The match was played at Estádio Dr. Ronaldo Junqueira in Poços de Caldas, Minas Gerais.