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Caldense vs CAP — Mineiro - 2 2026

Caldense
Caldense
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
CAP
CAP
Julian 18'
Unknown 90+8', 63'
7/1/2026Mineiro - 2Mineiro - 2 · Round 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Caldense25%
×Draw39%
CAP36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Caldense
0.58
CAP
0.76

CAP creates 31% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 12 away

creates per match

Caldense
0.67
CAP
0.92

allows per match

Caldense
0.60
CAP
0.50

finishing

Caldense+0.00on par
CAP+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 85Over: 1585%Under
  • Under85
  • Over15

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 77Yes: 2377%No
  • No77
  • Yes23

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caldense ↓

CAP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–026%
0–120%
0–28%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–04%
2–13%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (26%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
74%26%1.5
39%61%2.5
15%85%3.5
5%95%4.5
1%99%

Double chance

Caldense or draw
64%
Caldense or CAP
61%
Draw or CAP
75%

Winning margin

Caldense wins by 2+
6%
CAP wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Caldense 1+ goals
44%
Caldense 2+ goals
12%
Caldense 3+ goals
2%
CAP 1+ goals
53%
CAP 2+ goals
18%
CAP 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Caldense (draw refunded)
41%
CAP (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
12%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Caldense at home — creates 0.67, concedes 0.60 · 15 matches

CAP away — creates 0.92, concedes 0.50 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Caldense attack 0.67 + CAP defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.58

CAP attack 0.92 + Caldense defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Caldense scores more
25%
level
39%
CAP scores more
36%

CAP at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "CAP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'
Julian
63'
90+8'
90+12'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Caldense vs CAP

CAP beat Caldense 2-1 in Mineiro - 2 on July 1, 2026.

Goals: Julian (18'), ? (63', 90+8').