Caldense 0–3 Atlético Alagoinhas: Result & Stats

Caldense

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Atlético Alagoinhas

Dedeco 84'

Tobinha 64' (pen)

Robert 32'

9/26/2020

Serie D · Round 2Estádio Dr. Ronaldo Junqueira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Caldense42%

×Draw28%

Atlético Alagoinhas30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CaldenseExpected goals in this matchAtlético Alagoinhas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.03

Caldense

1.28

Atlético Alagoinhas

1.03

Caldense creates 24% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 41 away

0.89

creates per match

1.10

0.96

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Caldense

0.89

Atlético Alagoinhas

1.10

allows per match

Caldense

0.96

Atlético Alagoinhas

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Caldense+0.00on par

Atlético Alagoinhas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caldense ↓

Atlético Alagoinhas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Caldense or draw

70%

Caldense or Atlético Alagoinhas

72%

Draw or Atlético Alagoinhas

58%

Winning margin

Caldense wins by 2+

19%

Atlético Alagoinhas wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Caldense 1+ goals

72%

Caldense 2+ goals

37%

Caldense 3+ goals

14%

Atlético Alagoinhas 1+ goals

64%

Atlético Alagoinhas 2+ goals

28%

Atlético Alagoinhas 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Caldense (draw refunded)

59%

Atlético Alagoinhas (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Caldense at home — creates 0.89, concedes 0.96 · 28 matches

Atlético Alagoinhas away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.68 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Caldense attack 0.89 + Atlético Alagoinhas defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.28

Atlético Alagoinhas attack 1.10 + Caldense defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Caldense scores more

42%

level

28%

Atlético Alagoinhas scores more

30%

Caldense at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Caldense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'

Robert

53'

Gustavo← Henrique Caivano

60'

Tobinha← Jeam

60'

Dedeco← Robert

64'

TobinhaPenalty

65'

Antonio Carlos← Franklin

70'

Leonardo← Marco Damasceno

76'

Iran← Leandro Sobral

76'

Reinaldo Valverde← Russo

84'

Dedeco

85'

Naian← Victor Leandro

Caldense

Atlético

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Marcus Paulo

53'▲Gustavo←▼Henrique Caivano

65'▲Antonio Carlos←▼Franklin

70'▲Leonardo←▼Marco Damasceno

Caldense substitutes

GustavoCarlosLeonardoPotiguarPauloThiagoHenrique

Manager: Agnado Liz

60'▲Tobinha←▼Jeam

60'▲Dedeco←▼Robert

76'▲Iran←▼Leandro Sobral

76'▲Reinaldo Valverde←▼Russo

85'▲Naian←▼Victor Leandro

Atlético Alagoinhas substitutes

TobinhaDedecoIranValverdeNaianLupitaMiller