Caldas 1–2 Tirsense: Result & Stats

Caldas

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Tirsense

10/19/2024

Taça de Portugal · 3rd RoundCampo da Mata

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Caldas31%

×Draw24%

Tirsense45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CaldasExpected goals in this matchTirsense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.66

Caldas

1.32

Tirsense

1.66

Tirsense creates 26% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 7 away

1.64

creates per match

2.14

1.18

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Caldas

1.64

Tirsense

2.14

allows per match

Caldas

1.18

Tirsense

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Caldas+0.00on par

Tirsense+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caldas ↓

Tirsense →

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Caldas or draw

55%

Caldas or Tirsense

76%

Draw or Tirsense

69%

Winning margin

Caldas wins by 2+

13%

Tirsense wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Caldas 1+ goals

73%

Caldas 2+ goals

38%

Caldas 3+ goals

15%

Tirsense 1+ goals

81%

Tirsense 2+ goals

49%

Tirsense 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Caldas (draw refunded)

40%

Tirsense (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Caldas at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

Tirsense away — creates 2.14, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Caldas attack 1.64 + Tirsense defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.32

Tirsense attack 2.14 + Caldas defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 45%?"

Caldas scores more

31%

level

24%

Tirsense scores more

45%

Tirsense at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Tirsense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff