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Caldas vs Sporting CP B — Liga 3 2021

Caldas
Caldas
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sporting CP B
Sporting CP B
1/14/2024Liga 3Liga 3 · Round 16Campo da Mata

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Caldas38%
×Draw27%
Sporting CP B34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Caldas
1.26
Sporting CP B
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 70 home / 58 away

creates per match

Caldas
1.26
Sporting CP B
1.14

allows per match

Caldas
1.21
Sporting CP B
1.26

finishing

Caldas+0.00on par
Sporting CP B+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caldas ↓

Sporting CP B →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Caldas or draw
66%
Caldas or Sporting CP B
73%
Draw or Sporting CP B
62%

Winning margin

Caldas wins by 2+
17%
Sporting CP B wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Caldas 1+ goals
72%
Caldas 2+ goals
36%
Caldas 3+ goals
13%
Sporting CP B 1+ goals
69%
Sporting CP B 2+ goals
33%
Sporting CP B 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Caldas (draw refunded)
53%
Sporting CP B (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Caldas at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.21 · 70 matches

Sporting CP B away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.26 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Caldas attack 1.26 + Sporting CP B defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.26

Sporting CP B attack 1.14 + Caldas defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Caldas scores more
38%
level
27%
Sporting CP B scores more
34%

Caldas at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Caldas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Caldas vs Sporting CP B

Caldas beat Sporting CP B 1-0 in Liga 3 on January 14, 2024.

The match was played at Campo da Mata in Caldas da Rainha.