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Caldas vs Mirandela — Taça de Portugal 2018

Caldas
Caldasadvanced
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Mirandela
Mirandela
10/19/2025Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · Round of 64Campo da Mata

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Caldas47%
×Draw23%
Mirandela30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Caldas
1.82
Mirandela
1.42

Caldas creates 28% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 6 away

creates per match

Caldas
1.64
Mirandela
1.67

allows per match

Caldas
1.18
Mirandela
2.00

finishing

Caldas+0.00on par
Mirandela+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caldas ↓

Mirandela →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Caldas or draw
70%
Caldas or Mirandela
77%
Draw or Mirandela
53%

Winning margin

Caldas wins by 2+
26%
Mirandela wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Caldas 1+ goals
84%
Caldas 2+ goals
54%
Caldas 3+ goals
27%
Mirandela 1+ goals
76%
Mirandela 2+ goals
41%
Mirandela 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Caldas (draw refunded)
61%
Mirandela (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Caldas at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

Mirandela away — creates 1.67, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Caldas attack 1.64 + Mirandela defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.82

Mirandela attack 1.67 + Caldas defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Caldas scores more
47%
level
23%
Mirandela scores more
30%

Caldas at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Caldas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Caldas vs Mirandela

Caldas beat Mirandela 1-0 in Taça de Portugal on October 19, 2025.

The match was played at Campo da Mata in Caldas da Rainha.