Caldas 1–1 Cova De Piedade: Result & Stats | Liga 3

Caldas

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Cova De Piedade

3/19/2022

Liga 3 · Relegation Round - 1Campo da Mata

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Caldas42%

×Draw27%

Cova De Piedade31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CaldasExpected goals in this matchCova De Piedade

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.10

Caldas

1.34

Cova De Piedade

1.10

Caldas creates 22% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 14 away

1.26

creates per match

1.00

1.21

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Caldas

1.26

Cova De Piedade

1.00

allows per match

Caldas

1.21

Cova De Piedade

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Caldas+0.00on par

Cova De Piedade+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caldas ↓

Cova De Piedade →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Caldas or draw

69%

Caldas or Cova De Piedade

73%

Draw or Cova De Piedade

58%

Winning margin

Caldas wins by 2+

19%

Cova De Piedade wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Caldas 1+ goals

74%

Caldas 2+ goals

39%

Caldas 3+ goals

15%

Cova De Piedade 1+ goals

67%

Cova De Piedade 2+ goals

30%

Cova De Piedade 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Caldas (draw refunded)

58%

Cova De Piedade (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Caldas at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.21 · 70 matches

Cova De Piedade away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.43 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Caldas attack 1.26 + Cova De Piedade defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.34

Cova De Piedade attack 1.00 + Caldas defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Caldas scores more

42%

level

27%

Cova De Piedade scores more

31%

Caldas at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Caldas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff