Caldas 1–0 Alverca: Result & Stats | Liga 3

Caldas

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Alverca

2/19/2022

Liga 3 · Round 20Campo da Mata

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Caldas36%

×Draw27%

Alverca38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CaldasExpected goals in this matchAlverca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.29

Caldas

1.25

Alverca

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 70 home / 45 away

1.26

creates per match

1.38

1.21

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Caldas

1.26

Alverca

1.38

allows per match

Caldas

1.21

Alverca

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Caldas+0.00on par

Alverca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caldas ↓

Alverca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Caldas or draw

62%

Caldas or Alverca

73%

Draw or Alverca

64%

Winning margin

Caldas wins by 2+

15%

Alverca wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Caldas 1+ goals

71%

Caldas 2+ goals

36%

Caldas 3+ goals

13%

Alverca 1+ goals

72%

Alverca 2+ goals

37%

Alverca 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Caldas (draw refunded)

49%

Alverca (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Caldas at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.21 · 70 matches

Alverca away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.24 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Caldas attack 1.26 + Alverca defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.25

Alverca attack 1.38 + Caldas defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Caldas scores more

36%

level

27%

Alverca scores more

38%

Alverca at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Alverca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff