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Calcutta Police vs Railway — Calcutta Premier Division 2026

Calcutta Police
Calcutta Police
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Railway
Railway
9/10/2025Calcutta Premier DivisionCalcutta Premier Division · Relegation Round - 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Calcutta Police33%
×Draw34%
Railway33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Calcutta Police
0.85
Railway
0.85

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 4 away

creates per match

Calcutta Police
0.20
Railway
0.00

allows per match

Calcutta Police
1.70
Railway
1.50

finishing

Calcutta Police+0.00on par
Railway+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Under
  • Under76
  • Over24

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Calcutta Police ↓

Railway →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–116%
0–27%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
51%49%2.5
24%76%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Calcutta Police or draw
67%
Calcutta Police or Railway
66%
Draw or Railway
67%

Winning margin

Calcutta Police wins by 2+
11%
Railway wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Calcutta Police 1+ goals
57%
Calcutta Police 2+ goals
21%
Calcutta Police 3+ goals
5%
Railway 1+ goals
57%
Railway 2+ goals
21%
Railway 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Calcutta Police (draw refunded)
50%
Railway (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Calcutta Police at home — creates 0.20, concedes 1.70 · 10 matches

Railway away — creates 0.00, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Calcutta Police attack 0.20 + Railway defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 0.85

Railway attack 0.00 + Calcutta Police defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 33%?"

Calcutta Police scores more
33%
level
34%
Railway scores more
33%

Calcutta Police at 33% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 33% does not mean "Calcutta Police will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Calcutta Premier Division: Calcutta Police 0–0 Railway

Calcutta Police and Railway drew 0-0 in Calcutta Premier Division on September 10, 2025.