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Calasancio vs Villegas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Calasancio
Calasancio
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Villegas
Villegas
5/23/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 2nd Phase - 8Estadio La Estrella

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Calasancio52%
×Draw22%
Villegas26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Calasancio
1.90
Villegas
1.28

Calasancio creates 48% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 46 away

creates per match

Calasancio
0.76
Villegas
0.57

allows per match

Calasancio
2.00
Villegas
3.04

finishing

Calasancio+0.00on par
Villegas+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Calasancio ↓

Villegas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Calasancio or draw
74%
Calasancio or Villegas
78%
Draw or Villegas
48%

Winning margin

Calasancio wins by 2+
29%
Villegas wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Calasancio 1+ goals
85%
Calasancio 2+ goals
56%
Calasancio 3+ goals
29%
Villegas 1+ goals
72%
Villegas 2+ goals
37%
Villegas 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Calasancio (draw refunded)
67%
Villegas (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Calasancio at home — creates 0.76, concedes 2.00 · 29 matches

Villegas away — creates 0.57, concedes 3.04 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Calasancio attack 0.76 + Villegas defence 3.04 → ÷2 → 1.90

Villegas attack 0.57 + Calasancio defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Calasancio scores more
52%
level
22%
Villegas scores more
26%

Calasancio at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Calasancio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Calasancio vs Villegas

Calasancio beat Villegas 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on May 23, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio La Estrella in Logroño.