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Calasancio vs River Ebro — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Calasancio
Calasancio
CANC
22:00
River Ebro
River Ebro
5/16/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 38Estadio La Estrella

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Calasancio33%
×Draw25%
River Ebro42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Calasancio
1.34
River Ebro
1.54

River Ebro creates 15% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 93 away

creates per match

Calasancio
0.76
River Ebro
1.09

allows per match

Calasancio
2.00
River Ebro
1.92

finishing

Calasancio+0.00on par
River Ebro+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Calasancio ↓

River Ebro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Calasancio or draw
58%
Calasancio or River Ebro
75%
Draw or River Ebro
67%

Winning margin

Calasancio wins by 2+
15%
River Ebro wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Calasancio 1+ goals
74%
Calasancio 2+ goals
39%
Calasancio 3+ goals
15%
River Ebro 1+ goals
79%
River Ebro 2+ goals
45%
River Ebro 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Calasancio (draw refunded)
44%
River Ebro (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Calasancio at home — creates 0.76, concedes 2.00 · 29 matches

River Ebro away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.92 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Calasancio attack 0.76 + River Ebro defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.34

River Ebro attack 1.09 + Calasancio defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Calasancio scores more
33%
level
25%
River Ebro scores more
42%

River Ebro at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "River Ebro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Calasancio host River Ebro

May 16, 2020: Calasancio take on River Ebro in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Calasancio host River Ebro at Estadio La Estrella.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.