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Calasancio vs Pradejón — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Calasancio
Calasancio
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Pradejón
Pradejón
12/13/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 9Estadio La Estrella

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Calasancio32%
×Draw25%
Pradejón43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Calasancio
1.33
Pradejón
1.58

Pradejón creates 19% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 46 away

creates per match

Calasancio
0.76
Pradejón
1.17

allows per match

Calasancio
2.00
Pradejón
1.91

finishing

Calasancio+0.00on par
Pradejón+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Calasancio ↓

Pradejón →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Calasancio or draw
57%
Calasancio or Pradejón
75%
Draw or Pradejón
68%

Winning margin

Calasancio wins by 2+
14%
Pradejón wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Calasancio 1+ goals
74%
Calasancio 2+ goals
38%
Calasancio 3+ goals
15%
Pradejón 1+ goals
79%
Pradejón 2+ goals
47%
Pradejón 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Calasancio (draw refunded)
43%
Pradejón (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Calasancio at home — creates 0.76, concedes 2.00 · 29 matches

Pradejón away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.91 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Calasancio attack 0.76 + Pradejón defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.33

Pradejón attack 1.17 + Calasancio defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Calasancio scores more
32%
level
25%
Pradejón scores more
43%

Pradejón at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Pradejón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16: Calasancio 1–1 Pradejón

Calasancio and Pradejón drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on December 13, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio La Estrella in Logroño.