Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Calasancio vs Casalarreina — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Calasancio
Calasancio
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Casalarreina
Casalarreina
3/17/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 16Estadio La Estrella

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Calasancio27%
×Draw24%
Casalarreina49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Calasancio
1.17
Casalarreina
1.67

Casalarreina creates 43% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 91 away

creates per match

Calasancio
0.76
Casalarreina
1.34

allows per match

Calasancio
2.00
Casalarreina
1.58

finishing

Calasancio+0.00on par
Casalarreina+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Calasancio ↓

Casalarreina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Calasancio or draw
51%
Calasancio or Casalarreina
76%
Draw or Casalarreina
73%

Winning margin

Calasancio wins by 2+
11%
Casalarreina wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Calasancio 1+ goals
69%
Calasancio 2+ goals
33%
Calasancio 3+ goals
11%
Casalarreina 1+ goals
81%
Casalarreina 2+ goals
50%
Casalarreina 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Calasancio (draw refunded)
35%
Casalarreina (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Calasancio at home — creates 0.76, concedes 2.00 · 29 matches

Casalarreina away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.58 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Calasancio attack 0.76 + Casalarreina defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.17

Casalarreina attack 1.34 + Calasancio defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Calasancio scores more
27%
level
24%
Casalarreina scores more
49%

Casalarreina at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Casalarreina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16: Calasancio 0–2 Casalarreina

Casalarreina beat Calasancio 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on March 17, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio La Estrella in Logroño.