Calasancio 1–2 Calahorra II: Result & Stats

Calasancio

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Calahorra II

1/17/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 12Estadio La Estrella

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Calasancio21%

×Draw24%

Calahorra II55%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CalasancioExpected goals in this matchCalahorra II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.99

1.74

Calasancio

0.99

Calahorra II

1.74

Calahorra II creates 76% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 90 away

0.76

creates per match

1.48

2.00

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Calasancio

0.76

Calahorra II

1.48

allows per match

Calasancio

2.00

Calahorra II

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Calasancio+0.00on par

Calahorra II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Calasancio ↓

Calahorra II →

0–07%

0–111%

0–210%

0–36%

0–42%

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–42%

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Calasancio or draw

45%

Calasancio or Calahorra II

76%

Draw or Calahorra II

79%

Winning margin

Calasancio wins by 2+

Calahorra II wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Calasancio 1+ goals

63%

Calasancio 2+ goals

26%

Calasancio 3+ goals

Calahorra II 1+ goals

82%

Calahorra II 2+ goals

52%

Calahorra II 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Calasancio (draw refunded)

28%

Calahorra II (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Calasancio at home — creates 0.76, concedes 2.00 · 29 matches

Calahorra II away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.23 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Calasancio attack 0.76 + Calahorra II defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 0.99

Calahorra II attack 1.48 + Calasancio defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 55%?"

Calasancio scores more

21%

level

24%

Calahorra II scores more

55%

Calahorra II at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Calahorra II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff