Calamonte 1–3 Villafranca: Result & Stats

Calamonte

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Villafranca

12/11/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 10Municipal Calamonteño

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Calamonte39%

×Draw28%

Villafranca33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CalamonteExpected goals in this matchVillafranca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.13

Calamonte

1.25

Villafranca

1.13

Calamonte creates 11% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 81 away

1.22

creates per match

1.16

1.10

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Calamonte

1.22

Villafranca

1.16

allows per match

Calamonte

1.10

Villafranca

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Calamonte+0.00on par

Villafranca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Calamonte ↓

Villafranca →

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Calamonte or draw

67%

Calamonte or Villafranca

72%

Draw or Villafranca

61%

Winning margin

Calamonte wins by 2+

17%

Villafranca wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Calamonte 1+ goals

71%

Calamonte 2+ goals

36%

Calamonte 3+ goals

13%

Villafranca 1+ goals

68%

Villafranca 2+ goals

31%

Villafranca 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Calamonte (draw refunded)

54%

Villafranca (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Calamonte at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.10 · 109 matches

Villafranca away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.27 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Calamonte attack 1.22 + Villafranca defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.25

Villafranca attack 1.16 + Calamonte defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 39%?"

Calamonte scores more

39%

level

28%

Villafranca scores more

33%

Calamonte at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Calamonte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff