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Calamonte vs Olivenza — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Calamonte
Calamonte
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Olivenza
Olivenza
2/26/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 22Municipal Calamonteño

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Calamonte45%
×Draw27%
Olivenza28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Calamonte
1.39
Olivenza
1.05

Calamonte creates 32% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 93 away

creates per match

Calamonte
1.22
Olivenza
1.00

allows per match

Calamonte
1.10
Olivenza
1.56

finishing

Calamonte+0.00on par
Olivenza+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Calamonte ↓

Olivenza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Calamonte or draw
72%
Calamonte or Olivenza
73%
Draw or Olivenza
55%

Winning margin

Calamonte wins by 2+
21%
Olivenza wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Calamonte 1+ goals
75%
Calamonte 2+ goals
40%
Calamonte 3+ goals
16%
Olivenza 1+ goals
65%
Olivenza 2+ goals
28%
Olivenza 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Calamonte (draw refunded)
61%
Olivenza (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Calamonte at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.10 · 109 matches

Olivenza away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.56 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Calamonte attack 1.22 + Olivenza defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.39

Olivenza attack 1.00 + Calamonte defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Calamonte scores more
45%
level
27%
Olivenza scores more
28%

Calamonte at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Calamonte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14: Calamonte 1–2 Olivenza

Olivenza beat Calamonte 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on February 26, 2023.

The match was played at Municipal Calamonteño in Calamonte.