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Calamonte vs La Estrella — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Calamonte
Calamonte
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
La Estrella
La Estrella
10/30/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 8Municipal Calamonteño

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Calamonte56%
×Draw24%
La Estrella20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Calamonte
1.75
La Estrella
0.95

Calamonte creates 84% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 15 away

creates per match

Calamonte
1.22
La Estrella
0.80

allows per match

Calamonte
1.10
La Estrella
2.27

finishing

Calamonte+0.00on par
La Estrella+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Calamonte ↓

La Estrella →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Calamonte or draw
80%
Calamonte or La Estrella
76%
Draw or La Estrella
44%

Winning margin

Calamonte wins by 2+
31%
La Estrella wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Calamonte 1+ goals
83%
Calamonte 2+ goals
52%
Calamonte 3+ goals
25%
La Estrella 1+ goals
61%
La Estrella 2+ goals
25%
La Estrella 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Calamonte (draw refunded)
73%
La Estrella (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Calamonte at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.10 · 109 matches

La Estrella away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Calamonte attack 1.22 + La Estrella defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.75

La Estrella attack 0.80 + Calamonte defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Calamonte scores more
56%
level
24%
La Estrella scores more
20%

Calamonte at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Calamonte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Calamonte vs La Estrella

Calamonte beat La Estrella 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on October 30, 2022.

The match was played at Municipal Calamonteño in Calamonte.