Calamonte 1–0 Extremadura UD II: Result & Stats

Calamonte

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Extremadura UD II

2/9/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 17Municipal Calamonteño

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Calamonte41%

×Draw29%

Extremadura UD II31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CalamonteExpected goals in this matchExtremadura UD II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.02

Calamonte

1.23

Extremadura UD II

1.02

Calamonte creates 21% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 42 away

1.22

creates per match

0.93

1.10

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Calamonte

1.22

Extremadura UD II

0.93

allows per match

Calamonte

1.10

Extremadura UD II

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Calamonte+0.00on par

Extremadura UD II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Calamonte ↓

Extremadura UD II →

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Calamonte or draw

69%

Calamonte or Extremadura UD II

71%

Draw or Extremadura UD II

59%

Winning margin

Calamonte wins by 2+

18%

Extremadura UD II wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Calamonte 1+ goals

71%

Calamonte 2+ goals

35%

Calamonte 3+ goals

13%

Extremadura UD II 1+ goals

64%

Extremadura UD II 2+ goals

27%

Extremadura UD II 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Calamonte (draw refunded)

57%

Extremadura UD II (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Calamonte at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.10 · 109 matches

Extremadura UD II away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.24 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Calamonte attack 1.22 + Extremadura UD II defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.23

Extremadura UD II attack 0.93 + Calamonte defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 41%?"

Calamonte scores more

41%

level

29%

Extremadura UD II scores more

31%

Calamonte at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Calamonte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14: Calamonte 1–0 Extremadura UD II

Calamonte beat Extremadura UD II 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on February 9, 2022.

The match was played at Municipal Calamonteño in Calamonte.

Calamonte vs Extremadura UD II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14: Calamonte 1–0 Extremadura UD II