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Calamonte vs Badajoz II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Calamonte
Calamonte
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Badajoz II
Badajoz II
9/12/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 1Municipal Calamonteño

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Calamonte42%
×Draw30%
Badajoz II29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Calamonte
1.17
Badajoz II
0.92

Calamonte creates 27% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 15 away

creates per match

Calamonte
1.22
Badajoz II
0.73

allows per match

Calamonte
1.10
Badajoz II
1.13

finishing

Calamonte+0.00on par
Badajoz II+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Calamonte ↓

Badajoz II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Calamonte or draw
71%
Calamonte or Badajoz II
70%
Draw or Badajoz II
58%

Winning margin

Calamonte wins by 2+
18%
Badajoz II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Calamonte 1+ goals
69%
Calamonte 2+ goals
33%
Calamonte 3+ goals
11%
Badajoz II 1+ goals
60%
Badajoz II 2+ goals
23%
Badajoz II 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Calamonte (draw refunded)
59%
Badajoz II (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Calamonte at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.10 · 109 matches

Badajoz II away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Calamonte attack 1.22 + Badajoz II defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.17

Badajoz II attack 0.73 + Calamonte defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Calamonte scores more
42%
level
30%
Badajoz II scores more
29%

Calamonte at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Calamonte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14: Calamonte 1–1 Badajoz II

Calamonte and Badajoz II drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on September 12, 2021.

The match was played at Municipal Calamonteño in Calamonte.