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Calamocha vs Utrillas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Calamocha
Calamocha
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Utrillas
Utrillas
9/28/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 4Campo De Fútbol Jumaya Calamocha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Calamocha47%
×Draw27%
Utrillas26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Calamocha
1.44
Utrillas
1.01

Calamocha creates 43% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 66 away

creates per match

Calamocha
1.25
Utrillas
0.97

allows per match

Calamocha
1.05
Utrillas
1.64

finishing

Calamocha+0.00on par
Utrillas+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Calamocha ↓

Utrillas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Calamocha or draw
74%
Calamocha or Utrillas
73%
Draw or Utrillas
53%

Winning margin

Calamocha wins by 2+
23%
Utrillas wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Calamocha 1+ goals
76%
Calamocha 2+ goals
42%
Calamocha 3+ goals
18%
Utrillas 1+ goals
64%
Utrillas 2+ goals
27%
Utrillas 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Calamocha (draw refunded)
64%
Utrillas (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Calamocha at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.05 · 110 matches

Utrillas away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.64 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Calamocha attack 1.25 + Utrillas defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.44

Utrillas attack 0.97 + Calamocha defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Calamocha scores more
47%
level
27%
Utrillas scores more
26%

Calamocha at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Calamocha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Calamocha vs Utrillas

Calamocha beat Utrillas 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on September 28, 2025.

The match was played at Campo De Fútbol Jumaya Calamocha in Calamocha.