Calamocha 2–1 Sabiñánigo: Result & Stats

Calamocha

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Sabiñánigo

1/17/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 13Campo De Fútbol Jumaya Calamocha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Calamocha45%

×Draw26%

Sabiñánigo29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CalamochaExpected goals in this matchSabiñánigo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.15

Calamocha

1.50

Sabiñánigo

1.15

Calamocha creates 30% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 17 away

1.25

creates per match

1.24

1.05

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Calamocha

1.25

Sabiñánigo

1.24

allows per match

Calamocha

1.05

Sabiñánigo

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Calamocha+0.00on par

Sabiñánigo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Calamocha ↓

Sabiñánigo →

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Calamocha or draw

71%

Calamocha or Sabiñánigo

74%

Draw or Sabiñánigo

55%

Winning margin

Calamocha wins by 2+

22%

Sabiñánigo wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Calamocha 1+ goals

78%

Calamocha 2+ goals

44%

Calamocha 3+ goals

19%

Sabiñánigo 1+ goals

68%

Sabiñánigo 2+ goals

32%

Sabiñánigo 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Calamocha (draw refunded)

61%

Sabiñánigo (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Calamocha at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.05 · 110 matches

Sabiñánigo away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Calamocha attack 1.25 + Sabiñánigo defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.50

Sabiñánigo attack 1.24 + Calamocha defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 45%?"

Calamocha scores more

45%

level

26%

Sabiñánigo scores more

29%

Calamocha at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Calamocha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff