Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Calamocha vs Fraga — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Calamocha
Calamocha
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Fraga
Fraga
9/17/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 2Campo De Fútbol Jumaya Calamocha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Calamocha44%
×Draw27%
Fraga29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Calamocha
1.37
Fraga
1.06

Calamocha creates 29% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 65 away

creates per match

Calamocha
1.25
Fraga
1.06

allows per match

Calamocha
1.05
Fraga
1.49

finishing

Calamocha+0.00on par
Fraga+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Calamocha ↓

Fraga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Calamocha or draw
71%
Calamocha or Fraga
73%
Draw or Fraga
56%

Winning margin

Calamocha wins by 2+
21%
Fraga wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Calamocha 1+ goals
75%
Calamocha 2+ goals
40%
Calamocha 3+ goals
16%
Fraga 1+ goals
65%
Fraga 2+ goals
29%
Fraga 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Calamocha (draw refunded)
60%
Fraga (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Calamocha at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.05 · 110 matches

Fraga away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.49 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Calamocha attack 1.25 + Fraga defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.37

Fraga attack 1.06 + Calamocha defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Calamocha scores more
44%
level
27%
Fraga scores more
29%

Calamocha at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Calamocha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Calamocha vs Fraga

Calamocha beat Fraga 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on September 17, 2023.

The match was played at Campo De Fútbol Jumaya Calamocha in Calamocha.