Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Calamocha vs Ebro — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Calamocha
Calamocha
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ebro
Ebro
9/8/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 1Campo De Fútbol Jumaya Calamocha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Calamocha30%
×Draw30%
Ebro41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Calamocha
0.95
Ebro
1.17

Ebro creates 23% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 34 away

creates per match

Calamocha
1.25
Ebro
1.29

allows per match

Calamocha
1.05
Ebro
0.65

finishing

Calamocha+0.00on par
Ebro+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Calamocha ↓

Ebro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Calamocha or draw
59%
Calamocha or Ebro
70%
Draw or Ebro
70%

Winning margin

Calamocha wins by 2+
11%
Ebro wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Calamocha 1+ goals
61%
Calamocha 2+ goals
25%
Calamocha 3+ goals
7%
Ebro 1+ goals
69%
Ebro 2+ goals
33%
Ebro 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Calamocha (draw refunded)
42%
Ebro (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Calamocha at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.05 · 110 matches

Ebro away — creates 1.29, concedes 0.65 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Calamocha attack 1.25 + Ebro defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.95

Ebro attack 1.29 + Calamocha defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Calamocha scores more
30%
level
30%
Ebro scores more
41%

Ebro at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Ebro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17: Calamocha 0–0 Ebro

Calamocha and Ebro drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on September 8, 2024.

The match was played at Campo De Fútbol Jumaya Calamocha in Calamocha.