Calamocha 3–2 CDJ Tamarite: Result & Stats

Calamocha

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

CDJ Tamarite

12/14/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 14Campo De Fútbol Jumaya Calamocha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Calamocha48%

×Draw26%

CDJ Tamarite26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CalamochaExpected goals in this matchCDJ Tamarite

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.05

Calamocha

1.53

CDJ Tamarite

1.05

Calamocha creates 46% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 98 away

1.25

creates per match

1.05

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Calamocha

1.25

CDJ Tamarite

1.05

allows per match

Calamocha

1.05

CDJ Tamarite

1.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Calamocha+0.00on par

CDJ Tamarite+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Calamocha ↓

CDJ Tamarite →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Calamocha or draw

74%

Calamocha or CDJ Tamarite

74%

Draw or CDJ Tamarite

52%

Winning margin

Calamocha wins by 2+

25%

CDJ Tamarite wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Calamocha 1+ goals

78%

Calamocha 2+ goals

45%

Calamocha 3+ goals

20%

CDJ Tamarite 1+ goals

65%

CDJ Tamarite 2+ goals

28%

CDJ Tamarite 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Calamocha (draw refunded)

65%

CDJ Tamarite (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Calamocha at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.05 · 110 matches

CDJ Tamarite away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.81 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Calamocha attack 1.25 + CDJ Tamarite defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.53

CDJ Tamarite attack 1.05 + Calamocha defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Calamocha scores more

48%

level

26%

CDJ Tamarite scores more

26%

Calamocha at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Calamocha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff