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Calamocha vs Brea — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Calamocha
Calamocha
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Brea
Brea
3/21/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 22Campo De Fútbol Jumaya Calamocha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Calamocha39%
×Draw30%
Brea31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Calamocha
1.14
Brea
0.98

Calamocha creates 16% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 46 away

creates per match

Calamocha
1.25
Brea
0.91

allows per match

Calamocha
1.05
Brea
1.02

finishing

Calamocha+0.00on par
Brea+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Calamocha ↓

Brea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Calamocha or draw
69%
Calamocha or Brea
70%
Draw or Brea
61%

Winning margin

Calamocha wins by 2+
16%
Brea wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Calamocha 1+ goals
68%
Calamocha 2+ goals
32%
Calamocha 3+ goals
11%
Brea 1+ goals
62%
Brea 2+ goals
26%
Brea 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Calamocha (draw refunded)
56%
Brea (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Calamocha at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.05 · 110 matches

Brea away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.02 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Calamocha attack 1.25 + Brea defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.14

Brea attack 0.91 + Calamocha defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Calamocha scores more
39%
level
30%
Brea scores more
31%

Calamocha at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Calamocha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17: Calamocha 1–1 Brea

Calamocha and Brea drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on March 21, 2021.

The match was played at Campo De Fútbol Jumaya Calamocha in Calamocha.