Calamocha 0–2 Belchite 97: Result & Stats

Calamocha

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Belchite 97

1/5/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 16Campo De Fútbol Jumaya Calamocha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Calamocha42%

×Draw29%

Belchite 9729%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CalamochaExpected goals in this matchBelchite 97

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

0.96

Calamocha

1.21

Belchite 97

0.96

Calamocha creates 26% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 95 away

1.25

creates per match

0.87

1.05

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Calamocha

1.25

Belchite 97

0.87

allows per match

Calamocha

1.05

Belchite 97

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Calamocha+0.00on par

Belchite 97+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Calamocha ↓

Belchite 97 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Calamocha or draw

71%

Calamocha or Belchite 97

71%

Draw or Belchite 97

58%

Winning margin

Calamocha wins by 2+

18%

Belchite 97 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Calamocha 1+ goals

70%

Calamocha 2+ goals

34%

Calamocha 3+ goals

12%

Belchite 97 1+ goals

62%

Belchite 97 2+ goals

25%

Belchite 97 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Calamocha (draw refunded)

59%

Belchite 97 (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Calamocha at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.05 · 110 matches

Belchite 97 away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.18 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Calamocha attack 1.25 + Belchite 97 defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.21

Belchite 97 attack 0.87 + Calamocha defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Calamocha scores more

42%

level

29%

Belchite 97 scores more

29%

Calamocha at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Calamocha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff