Calahorra 3–2 SS Reyes: Result & Stats

Calahorra

FT

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

SS Reyes

Manu Ramírez 68'

David Soto 56', 54'

Eneko Jauregi 80'

Javier Rueda 29'

10/31/2021

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 10Estadio La Planilla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Calahorra46%

×Draw27%

SS Reyes28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CalahorraExpected goals in this matchSS Reyes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.04

Calahorra

1.42

SS Reyes

1.04

Calahorra creates 37% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 53 away

1.47

creates per match

0.92

1.16

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Calahorra

1.47

SS Reyes

0.92

allows per match

Calahorra

1.16

SS Reyes

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Calahorra+0.00on par

SS Reyes+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Calahorra ↓

SS Reyes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Calahorra or draw

72%

Calahorra or SS Reyes

73%

Draw or SS Reyes

54%

Winning margin

Calahorra wins by 2+

22%

SS Reyes wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Calahorra 1+ goals

76%

Calahorra 2+ goals

41%

Calahorra 3+ goals

17%

SS Reyes 1+ goals

65%

SS Reyes 2+ goals

28%

SS Reyes 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Calahorra (draw refunded)

62%

SS Reyes (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Calahorra at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.16 · 19 matches

SS Reyes away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.36 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Calahorra attack 1.47 + SS Reyes defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.42

SS Reyes attack 0.92 + Calahorra defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Calahorra scores more

46%

level

27%

SS Reyes scores more

28%

Calahorra at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Calahorra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

Javier Rueda

44'

F. Llorente

46'

David Soto← Jon Madrazo

46'

Manu Ramírez← Álex Arias

48'

J. Alvarez

54'

David Soto

56'

David Soto

64'

Andoni Ugarte← Cera

65'

Eneko Jauregi← Carlos Portero

65'

Raúl Hernández← Javier Rueda

67'

A. Rodriguez

68'

Manu Ramírez

70'

Imanol Barace← Carlos Vicente

73'

F. Fomeyem← Juanra

78'

Imanol Sarriegi← Jesús Álvarez

79'

I. Sarriegui

80'

Eneko Jauregi

81'

M. Ramirez

82'

Alfredo Pedraza← Mario González

82'

Jime← Borja Giner

Calahorra

SS

Bañuz

Llerena

▼

Juanra

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Eduardo Docampo

46'▲David Soto←▼Jon Madrazo

46'▲Manu Ramírez←▼Álex Arias

64'▲Andoni Ugarte←▼Cera

70'▲Imanol Barace←▼Carlos Vicente

78'▲Imanol Sarriegi←▼Jesús Álvarez

Calahorra substitutes

SotoRamírezUgarteBaraceSarriegiGrandeMarcénYurrebasoMartínez

Manager: Marcos Jiménez

65'▲Eneko Jauregi←▼Carlos Portero

65'▲Raúl Hernández←▼Javier Rueda

73'▲F. Fomeyem←▼Juanra

82'▲Alfredo Pedraza←▼Mario González

82'▲Jime←▼Borja Giner

SS Reyes substitutes

JauregiHernándezFomeyemPedrazaJimeLlamasAndrés

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Calahorra 3–2 SS Reyes

Calahorra beat SS Reyes 3-2 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on October 31, 2021.

Goals: Javier Rueda (29'), David Soto (54', 56'), Manu Ramírez (68'), Eneko Jauregi (80').

The match was played at Estadio La Planilla in Calahorra.

Calahorra vs SS Reyes — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Calahorra 3–2 SS Reyes