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Calahorra vs Real Unión — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Calahorra
Calahorra
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Real Unión
Real Unión
10/30/2022Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 10Estadio La Planilla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Calahorra37%
×Draw30%
Real Unión33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Calahorra
1.08
Real Unión
1.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 44 home / 46 away

creates per match

Calahorra
1.02
Real Unión
0.96

allows per match

Calahorra
1.05
Real Unión
1.15

finishing

Calahorra+0.00on par
Real Unión+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Calahorra ↓

Real Unión →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Calahorra or draw
67%
Calahorra or Real Unión
70%
Draw or Real Unión
63%

Winning margin

Calahorra wins by 2+
15%
Real Unión wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Calahorra 1+ goals
66%
Calahorra 2+ goals
29%
Calahorra 3+ goals
10%
Real Unión 1+ goals
63%
Real Unión 2+ goals
26%
Real Unión 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Calahorra (draw refunded)
53%
Real Unión (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Calahorra at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.05 · 44 matches

Real Unión away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.15 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Calahorra attack 1.02 + Real Unión defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.08

Real Unión attack 0.96 + Calahorra defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Calahorra scores more
37%
level
30%
Real Unión scores more
33%

Calahorra at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Calahorra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Calahorra vs Real Unión

Calahorra beat Real Unión 3-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on October 30, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio La Planilla in Calahorra.