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Calahorra vs Real Murcia — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Calahorra
Calahorra
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Real Murcia
Real Murcia
2/25/2023Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 25Estadio La Planilla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Calahorra32%
×Draw30%
Real Murcia38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Calahorra
0.99
Real Murcia
1.11

Real Murcia creates 12% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 76 away

creates per match

Calahorra
1.02
Real Murcia
1.18

allows per match

Calahorra
1.05
Real Murcia
0.97

finishing

Calahorra+0.00on par
Real Murcia+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Calahorra ↓

Real Murcia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Calahorra or draw
62%
Calahorra or Real Murcia
70%
Draw or Real Murcia
68%

Winning margin

Calahorra wins by 2+
12%
Real Murcia wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Calahorra 1+ goals
63%
Calahorra 2+ goals
26%
Calahorra 3+ goals
8%
Real Murcia 1+ goals
67%
Real Murcia 2+ goals
30%
Real Murcia 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Calahorra (draw refunded)
46%
Real Murcia (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Calahorra at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.05 · 44 matches

Real Murcia away — creates 1.18, concedes 0.97 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Calahorra attack 1.02 + Real Murcia defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.99

Real Murcia attack 1.18 + Calahorra defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Calahorra scores more
32%
level
30%
Real Murcia scores more
38%

Real Murcia at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Real Murcia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Calahorra 1–1 Real Murcia

Calahorra and Real Murcia drew 1-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on February 25, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio La Planilla in Calahorra.