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Calahorra vs Pradejón — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Calahorra
Calahorra
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Pradejón
Pradejón
10/5/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 5Estadio La Planilla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Calahorra69%
×Draw18%
Pradejón13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Calahorra
2.26
Pradejón
0.86

Calahorra creates 163% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 46 away

creates per match

Calahorra
2.61
Pradejón
1.17

allows per match

Calahorra
0.56
Pradejón
1.91

finishing

Calahorra+0.00on par
Pradejón+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Calahorra ↓

Pradejón →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Calahorra or draw
87%
Calahorra or Pradejón
82%
Draw or Pradejón
31%

Winning margin

Calahorra wins by 2+
45%
Pradejón wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Calahorra 1+ goals
89%
Calahorra 2+ goals
66%
Calahorra 3+ goals
39%
Pradejón 1+ goals
58%
Pradejón 2+ goals
21%
Pradejón 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Calahorra (draw refunded)
84%
Pradejón (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Calahorra at home — creates 2.61, concedes 0.56 · 18 matches

Pradejón away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.91 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Calahorra attack 2.61 + Pradejón defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 2.26

Pradejón attack 1.17 + Calahorra defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Calahorra scores more
69%
level
18%
Pradejón scores more
13%

Calahorra at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Calahorra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Calahorra vs Pradejón

Calahorra beat Pradejón 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on October 5, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio La Planilla in Calahorra.