Calahorra 1–2 Guijuelo: Result & Stats

Calahorra

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Guijuelo

Chacopino 74'

Pablo Espina 69', 23'

2/16/2020

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 25Estadio La Planilla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Calahorra42%

×Draw30%

Guijuelo28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CalahorraExpected goals in this matchGuijuelo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

0.88

Calahorra

1.16

Guijuelo

0.88

Calahorra creates 32% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 14 away

1.02

creates per match

0.71

1.05

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Calahorra

1.02

Guijuelo

0.71

allows per match

Calahorra

1.05

Guijuelo

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Calahorra+0.00on par

Guijuelo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Calahorra ↓

Guijuelo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Calahorra or draw

72%

Calahorra or Guijuelo

70%

Draw or Guijuelo

58%

Winning margin

Calahorra wins by 2+

18%

Guijuelo wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Calahorra 1+ goals

69%

Calahorra 2+ goals

32%

Calahorra 3+ goals

11%

Guijuelo 1+ goals

59%

Guijuelo 2+ goals

22%

Guijuelo 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Calahorra (draw refunded)

60%

Guijuelo (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Calahorra at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.05 · 44 matches

Guijuelo away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Calahorra attack 1.02 + Guijuelo defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.16

Guijuelo attack 0.71 + Calahorra defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Calahorra scores more

42%

level

30%

Guijuelo scores more

28%

Calahorra at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Calahorra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

Pablo Espina

45'

J. Echaide

46'

Alberto Morgado← Jorge Fernández

53'

José Ramón← Ander El Haddadi

59'

Luis Lara← Y. Fékir

61'

Chacopino← Celorrio

69'

Pablo Espina

74'

Juan Segura← Pepe Carmona

74'

Chacopino

85'

R. Ochiroşii← Cristóbal Gil

Calahorra

Guijuelo

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Miguel Sola

46'▲Alberto Morgado←▼Jorge Fernández

53'▲José Ramón←▼Ander El Haddadi

61'▲Chacopino←▼Celorrio

Calahorra substitutes

MorgadoRamónChacopinoGoñiCarraleroAlegríaBarrera

Manager: Ángel Sánchez

59'▲Luis Lara←▼Y. Fékir

74'▲Juan Segura←▼Pepe Carmona

85'▲R. Ochiroşii←▼Cristóbal Gil

Guijuelo substitutes

LaraSeguraOchiroşiiMolinaManganaVera

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Calahorra 1–2 Guijuelo

Guijuelo beat Calahorra 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on February 16, 2020.

Goals: Pablo Espina (23', 69'), Chacopino (74').

The match was played at Estadio La Planilla in Calahorra.

Calahorra vs Guijuelo — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Calahorra 1–2 Guijuelo