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Calahorra vs Gimnastic — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Calahorra
Calahorra
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Gimnastic
Gimnastic
9/17/2022Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 4Estadio La Planilla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Calahorra40%
×Draw31%
Gimnastic29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Calahorra
1.10
Gimnastic
0.89

Calahorra creates 24% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 57 away

creates per match

Calahorra
1.02
Gimnastic
0.72

allows per match

Calahorra
1.05
Gimnastic
1.18

finishing

Calahorra+0.00on par
Gimnastic+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Calahorra ↓

Gimnastic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Calahorra or draw
71%
Calahorra or Gimnastic
69%
Draw or Gimnastic
60%

Winning margin

Calahorra wins by 2+
16%
Gimnastic wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Calahorra 1+ goals
67%
Calahorra 2+ goals
30%
Calahorra 3+ goals
10%
Gimnastic 1+ goals
59%
Gimnastic 2+ goals
22%
Gimnastic 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Calahorra (draw refunded)
58%
Gimnastic (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Calahorra at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.05 · 44 matches

Gimnastic away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.18 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Calahorra attack 1.02 + Gimnastic defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.10

Gimnastic attack 0.72 + Calahorra defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Calahorra scores more
40%
level
31%
Gimnastic scores more
29%

Calahorra at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Calahorra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Calahorra 0–0 Gimnastic

Calahorra and Gimnastic drew 0-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on September 17, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio La Planilla in Calahorra.