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Calahorra vs CF Talavera — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Calahorra
Calahorra
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
CF Talavera
CF Talavera
5/28/2022Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 38Estadio La Planilla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Calahorra49%
×Draw25%
CF Talavera26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Calahorra
1.56
CF Talavera
1.05

Calahorra creates 49% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 54 away

creates per match

Calahorra
1.47
CF Talavera
0.94

allows per match

Calahorra
1.16
CF Talavera
1.65

finishing

Calahorra+0.00on par
CF Talavera+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Calahorra ↓

CF Talavera →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Calahorra or draw
74%
Calahorra or CF Talavera
75%
Draw or CF Talavera
51%

Winning margin

Calahorra wins by 2+
25%
CF Talavera wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Calahorra 1+ goals
79%
Calahorra 2+ goals
46%
Calahorra 3+ goals
21%
CF Talavera 1+ goals
65%
CF Talavera 2+ goals
28%
CF Talavera 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Calahorra (draw refunded)
66%
CF Talavera (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Calahorra at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.16 · 19 matches

CF Talavera away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.65 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Calahorra attack 1.47 + CF Talavera defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.56

CF Talavera attack 0.94 + Calahorra defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Calahorra scores more
49%
level
25%
CF Talavera scores more
26%

Calahorra at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Calahorra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Calahorra 1–2 CF Talavera

CF Talavera beat Calahorra 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on May 28, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio La Planilla in Calahorra.