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Calahorra vs Celta de Vigo II — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Calahorra
Calahorra
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Celta de Vigo II
Celta de Vigo II
9/25/2021Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 5Estadio La Planilla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Calahorra40%
×Draw26%
Celta de Vigo II34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Calahorra
1.38
Celta de Vigo II
1.25

Calahorra creates 10% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 120 away

creates per match

Calahorra
1.47
Celta de Vigo II
1.33

allows per match

Calahorra
1.16
Celta de Vigo II
1.29

finishing

Calahorra+0.00on par
Celta de Vigo II+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Calahorra ↓

Celta de Vigo II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Calahorra or draw
66%
Calahorra or Celta de Vigo II
74%
Draw or Celta de Vigo II
60%

Winning margin

Calahorra wins by 2+
19%
Celta de Vigo II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Calahorra 1+ goals
75%
Calahorra 2+ goals
40%
Calahorra 3+ goals
16%
Celta de Vigo II 1+ goals
71%
Celta de Vigo II 2+ goals
36%
Celta de Vigo II 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Calahorra (draw refunded)
54%
Celta de Vigo II (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Calahorra at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.16 · 19 matches

Celta de Vigo II away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.29 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Calahorra attack 1.47 + Celta de Vigo II defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.38

Celta de Vigo II attack 1.33 + Calahorra defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Calahorra scores more
40%
level
26%
Celta de Vigo II scores more
34%

Calahorra at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Calahorra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Calahorra 1–0 Celta de Vigo II

Calahorra beat Celta de Vigo II 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on September 25, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio La Planilla in Calahorra.