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Calahorra vs Atlético Baleares — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Calahorra
Calahorra
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Atlético Baleares
Atlético Baleares
11/20/2022Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 12Estadio La Planilla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Calahorra43%
×Draw29%
Atlético Baleares28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Calahorra
1.22
Atlético Baleares
0.94

Calahorra creates 30% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 57 away

creates per match

Calahorra
1.02
Atlético Baleares
0.82

allows per match

Calahorra
1.05
Atlético Baleares
1.42

finishing

Calahorra+0.00on par
Atlético Baleares+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Calahorra ↓

Atlético Baleares →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Calahorra or draw
72%
Calahorra or Atlético Baleares
71%
Draw or Atlético Baleares
57%

Winning margin

Calahorra wins by 2+
19%
Atlético Baleares wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Calahorra 1+ goals
70%
Calahorra 2+ goals
34%
Calahorra 3+ goals
12%
Atlético Baleares 1+ goals
61%
Atlético Baleares 2+ goals
24%
Atlético Baleares 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Calahorra (draw refunded)
60%
Atlético Baleares (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Calahorra at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.05 · 44 matches

Atlético Baleares away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.42 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Calahorra attack 1.02 + Atlético Baleares defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.22

Atlético Baleares attack 0.82 + Calahorra defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Calahorra scores more
43%
level
29%
Atlético Baleares scores more
28%

Calahorra at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Calahorra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Calahorra 1 – 1 Atlético Baleares

Calahorra and Atlético Baleares drew 1-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on November 20, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio La Planilla in Calahorra.