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Calahorra vs Athletic Club II — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Calahorra
Calahorra
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Athletic Club II
Athletic Club II
10/2/2022Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 6Estadio La Planilla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Calahorra38%
×Draw28%
Athletic Club II34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Calahorra
1.22
Athletic Club II
1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 44 home / 45 away

creates per match

Calahorra
1.02
Athletic Club II
1.20

allows per match

Calahorra
1.05
Athletic Club II
1.42

finishing

Calahorra+0.00on par
Athletic Club II+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Calahorra ↓

Athletic Club II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Calahorra or draw
66%
Calahorra or Athletic Club II
72%
Draw or Athletic Club II
62%

Winning margin

Calahorra wins by 2+
16%
Athletic Club II wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Calahorra 1+ goals
70%
Calahorra 2+ goals
34%
Calahorra 3+ goals
12%
Athletic Club II 1+ goals
68%
Athletic Club II 2+ goals
31%
Athletic Club II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Calahorra (draw refunded)
53%
Athletic Club II (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Calahorra at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.05 · 44 matches

Athletic Club II away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.42 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Calahorra attack 1.02 + Athletic Club II defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.22

Athletic Club II attack 1.20 + Calahorra defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Calahorra scores more
38%
level
28%
Athletic Club II scores more
34%

Calahorra at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Calahorra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Calahorra 1–2 Athletic Club II

Athletic Club II beat Calahorra 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on October 2, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio La Planilla in Calahorra.