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Calahorra vs Arnedo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Calahorra
Calahorra
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Arnedo
Arnedoadvanced
I. Pascual 69'
J. Vidorreta Larumbe 58'
5/17/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Semi-finals

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Calahorra56%
×Draw22%
Arnedo22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Calahorra
1.90
Arnedo
1.09

Calahorra creates 74% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 95 away

creates per match

Calahorra
2.61
Arnedo
1.63

allows per match

Calahorra
0.56
Arnedo
1.20

finishing

Calahorra+0.00on par
Arnedo+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Calahorra ↓

Arnedo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Calahorra or draw
78%
Calahorra or Arnedo
78%
Draw or Arnedo
44%

Winning margin

Calahorra wins by 2+
33%
Arnedo wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Calahorra 1+ goals
85%
Calahorra 2+ goals
56%
Calahorra 3+ goals
29%
Arnedo 1+ goals
66%
Arnedo 2+ goals
30%
Arnedo 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Calahorra (draw refunded)
72%
Arnedo (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Calahorra at home — creates 2.61, concedes 0.56 · 18 matches

Arnedo away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.20 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Calahorra attack 2.61 + Arnedo defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.90

Arnedo attack 1.63 + Calahorra defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Calahorra scores more
56%
level
22%
Arnedo scores more
22%

Calahorra at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Calahorra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

58'
J. Vidorreta Larumbe
69'
I. Pascual

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16: Calahorra 0–2 Arnedo

Arnedo beat Calahorra 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on May 17, 2026.

Goals: J. Vidorreta Larumbe (58'), I. Pascual (69').