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Calahorra vs Agoncillo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Calahorra
Calahorra
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Agoncillo
Agoncillo
1/25/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 19Estadio La Planilla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Calahorra64%
×Draw21%
Agoncillo15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Calahorra
2.02
Agoncillo
0.87

Calahorra creates 132% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 79 away

creates per match

Calahorra
2.61
Agoncillo
1.18

allows per match

Calahorra
0.56
Agoncillo
1.43

finishing

Calahorra+0.00on par
Agoncillo+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Calahorra ↓

Agoncillo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Calahorra or draw
85%
Calahorra or Agoncillo
79%
Draw or Agoncillo
36%

Winning margin

Calahorra wins by 2+
39%
Agoncillo wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Calahorra 1+ goals
87%
Calahorra 2+ goals
60%
Calahorra 3+ goals
33%
Agoncillo 1+ goals
58%
Agoncillo 2+ goals
22%
Agoncillo 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Calahorra (draw refunded)
81%
Agoncillo (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Calahorra at home — creates 2.61, concedes 0.56 · 18 matches

Agoncillo away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.43 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Calahorra attack 2.61 + Agoncillo defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 2.02

Agoncillo attack 1.18 + Calahorra defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Calahorra scores more
64%
level
21%
Agoncillo scores more
15%

Calahorra at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Calahorra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Calahorra vs Agoncillo

Calahorra and Agoncillo drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on January 25, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio La Planilla in Calahorra.