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Calahorra II vs Varea — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Calahorra II
Calahorra II
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Varea
Varea
3/28/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 27Estadio La Planilla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Calahorra II37%
×Draw25%
Varea39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Calahorra II
1.43
Varea
1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 92 home / 108 away

creates per match

Calahorra II
1.89
Varea
1.81

allows per match

Calahorra II
1.16
Varea
0.97

finishing

Calahorra II+0.00on par
Varea+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Calahorra II ↓

Varea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Calahorra II or draw
61%
Calahorra II or Varea
75%
Draw or Varea
63%

Winning margin

Calahorra II wins by 2+
17%
Varea wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Calahorra II 1+ goals
76%
Calahorra II 2+ goals
42%
Calahorra II 3+ goals
17%
Varea 1+ goals
77%
Varea 2+ goals
43%
Varea 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Calahorra II (draw refunded)
49%
Varea (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Calahorra II at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.16 · 92 matches

Varea away — creates 1.81, concedes 0.97 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Calahorra II attack 1.89 + Varea defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.43

Varea attack 1.81 + Calahorra II defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Calahorra II scores more
37%
level
25%
Varea scores more
39%

Varea at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Varea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Calahorra II vs Varea

Varea beat Calahorra II 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on March 28, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio La Planilla in Calahorra.