Calahorra II 0–4 UD Logroñés II: Result & Stats

Calahorra II

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

UD Logroñés II

Mustapha Zarouali 89'

Pol Arnau 60', 48'

Iván Estrecha 40'

9/8/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 1Estadio La Planilla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Calahorra II38%

×Draw26%

UD Logroñés II36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Calahorra IIExpected goals in this matchUD Logroñés II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.35

Calahorra II

1.39

UD Logroñés II

1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 92 home / 77 away

1.89

creates per match

1.55

1.16

allows per match

0.88

creates per match

Calahorra II

1.89

UD Logroñés II

1.55

allows per match

Calahorra II

1.16

UD Logroñés II

0.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Calahorra II+0.00on par

UD Logroñés II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Calahorra II ↓

UD Logroñés II →

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Calahorra II or draw

64%

Calahorra II or UD Logroñés II

74%

Draw or UD Logroñés II

62%

Winning margin

Calahorra II wins by 2+

18%

UD Logroñés II wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Calahorra II 1+ goals

75%

Calahorra II 2+ goals

40%

Calahorra II 3+ goals

16%

UD Logroñés II 1+ goals

74%

UD Logroñés II 2+ goals

39%

UD Logroñés II 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Calahorra II (draw refunded)

51%

UD Logroñés II (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Calahorra II at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.16 · 92 matches

UD Logroñés II away — creates 1.55, concedes 0.88 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Calahorra II attack 1.89 + UD Logroñés II defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.39

UD Logroñés II attack 1.55 + Calahorra II defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 38%?"

Calahorra II scores more

38%

level

26%

UD Logroñés II scores more

36%

Calahorra II at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Calahorra II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'

Iván Estrecha

48'

Pol Arnau

51'

Cesar Jimenez← Saúl Garrido

58'

Michael Ngaah← Daniel García

58'

Markel Gil← Rafael Cristóbal

60'

Pol Arnau

62'

Silvio Castillo← Zaid Ouldeniymia

76'

Cayetano Ruiz← Pol Arnau

76'

Mario Salazar← Samuel Lallana

81'

Iker Pérez← Iván Estrecha

89'

Mustapha Zarouali

Calahorra

Fernandez

Sáenz

⚽2

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Solabarrieta

51'▲Cesar Jimenez←▼Saúl Garrido

62'▲Silvio Castillo←▼Zaid Ouldeniymia

Calahorra II substitutes

JimenezCastillo

Manager: Eladio Urzay

58'▲Michael Ngaah←▼Daniel García

58'▲Markel Gil←▼Rafael Cristóbal

76'▲Cayetano Ruiz←▼Pol Arnau

76'▲Mario Salazar←▼Samuel Lallana

81'▲Iker Pérez←▼Iván Estrecha

UD Logroñés II substitutes

NgaahGilRuizSalazarPérez

Match Recap: Calahorra II vs UD Logroñés II

UD Logroñés II beat Calahorra II 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on September 8, 2024.

Goals: Iván Estrecha (40'), Pol Arnau (48', 60'), Mustapha Zarouali (89').

The match was played at Estadio La Planilla in Calahorra.

Calahorra II vs UD Logroñés II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Calahorra II vs UD Logroñés II