Calahorra II 3–3 Náxara: Result & Stats

Calahorra II

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Náxara

12/18/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 14Estadio La Planilla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Calahorra II31%

×Draw23%

Náxara46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Calahorra IIExpected goals in this matchNáxara

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.83

Calahorra II

1.48

Náxara

1.83

Náxara creates 24% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 59 away

1.89

creates per match

2.49

1.16

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Calahorra II

1.89

Náxara

2.49

allows per match

Calahorra II

1.16

Náxara

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Calahorra II+0.00on par

Náxara+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Calahorra II ↓

Náxara →

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Calahorra II or draw

54%

Calahorra II or Náxara

77%

Draw or Náxara

69%

Winning margin

Calahorra II wins by 2+

14%

Náxara wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Calahorra II 1+ goals

77%

Calahorra II 2+ goals

43%

Calahorra II 3+ goals

19%

Náxara 1+ goals

84%

Náxara 2+ goals

54%

Náxara 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Calahorra II (draw refunded)

41%

Náxara (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Calahorra II at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.16 · 92 matches

Náxara away — creates 2.49, concedes 1.07 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Calahorra II attack 1.89 + Náxara defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.48

Náxara attack 2.49 + Calahorra II defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 46%?"

Calahorra II scores more

31%

level

23%

Náxara scores more

46%

Náxara at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Náxara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff