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Calahorra II vs Haro Deportivo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Calahorra II
Calahorra II
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Haro Deportivo
Haro Deportivo
11/5/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 9Estadio La Planilla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Calahorra II54%
×Draw24%
Haro Deportivo23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Calahorra II
1.75
Haro Deportivo
1.05

Calahorra II creates 67% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 81 away

creates per match

Calahorra II
1.89
Haro Deportivo
0.94

allows per match

Calahorra II
1.16
Haro Deportivo
1.60

finishing

Calahorra II+0.00on par
Haro Deportivo+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Calahorra II ↓

Haro Deportivo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Calahorra II or draw
77%
Calahorra II or Haro Deportivo
76%
Draw or Haro Deportivo
46%

Winning margin

Calahorra II wins by 2+
30%
Haro Deportivo wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Calahorra II 1+ goals
83%
Calahorra II 2+ goals
52%
Calahorra II 3+ goals
25%
Haro Deportivo 1+ goals
65%
Haro Deportivo 2+ goals
28%
Haro Deportivo 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Calahorra II (draw refunded)
70%
Haro Deportivo (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Calahorra II at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.16 · 92 matches

Haro Deportivo away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.60 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Calahorra II attack 1.89 + Haro Deportivo defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.75

Haro Deportivo attack 0.94 + Calahorra II defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Calahorra II scores more
54%
level
24%
Haro Deportivo scores more
23%

Calahorra II at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Calahorra II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Calahorra II 3 – 1 Haro Deportivo

Calahorra II beat Haro Deportivo 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio La Planilla in Calahorra.