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Calahorra II vs Comillas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Calahorra II
Calahorra II
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Comillas
Comillas
4/1/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 27Campo De Fútbol San Emeterio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Calahorra II56%
×Draw22%
Comillas22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Calahorra II
1.91
Comillas
1.11

Calahorra II creates 72% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 96 away

creates per match

Calahorra II
1.89
Comillas
1.06

allows per match

Calahorra II
1.16
Comillas
1.93

finishing

Calahorra II+0.00on par
Comillas+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Calahorra II ↓

Comillas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Calahorra II or draw
78%
Calahorra II or Comillas
78%
Draw or Comillas
44%

Winning margin

Calahorra II wins by 2+
32%
Comillas wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Calahorra II 1+ goals
85%
Calahorra II 2+ goals
57%
Calahorra II 3+ goals
30%
Comillas 1+ goals
67%
Comillas 2+ goals
30%
Comillas 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Calahorra II (draw refunded)
72%
Comillas (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Calahorra II at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.16 · 92 matches

Comillas away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.93 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Calahorra II attack 1.89 + Comillas defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.91

Comillas attack 1.06 + Calahorra II defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Calahorra II scores more
56%
level
22%
Comillas scores more
22%

Calahorra II at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Calahorra II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16: Calahorra II 3–1 Comillas

Calahorra II beat Comillas 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on April 1, 2023.

The match was played at Campo De Fútbol San Emeterio in Calahorra.