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Calahorra II vs Berceo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Calahorra II
Calahorra II
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Berceo
Berceo
2/19/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 21Estadio La Planilla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Calahorra II50%
×Draw24%
Berceo27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Calahorra II
1.74
Berceo
1.21

Calahorra II creates 44% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 111 away

creates per match

Calahorra II
1.89
Berceo
1.25

allows per match

Calahorra II
1.16
Berceo
1.59

finishing

Calahorra II+0.00on par
Berceo+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Calahorra II ↓

Berceo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Calahorra II or draw
73%
Calahorra II or Berceo
76%
Draw or Berceo
50%

Winning margin

Calahorra II wins by 2+
27%
Berceo wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Calahorra II 1+ goals
82%
Calahorra II 2+ goals
52%
Calahorra II 3+ goals
25%
Berceo 1+ goals
70%
Berceo 2+ goals
34%
Berceo 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Calahorra II (draw refunded)
65%
Berceo (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Calahorra II at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.16 · 92 matches

Berceo away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.59 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Calahorra II attack 1.89 + Berceo defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.74

Berceo attack 1.25 + Calahorra II defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Calahorra II scores more
50%
level
24%
Berceo scores more
27%

Calahorra II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Calahorra II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16: Calahorra II 2–2 Berceo

Calahorra II and Berceo drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on February 19, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio La Planilla in Calahorra.