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Calahorra II vs Arnedo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Calahorra II
Calahorra II
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Arnedo
Arnedo
12/15/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 17Estadio La Planilla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Calahorra II41%
×Draw25%
Arnedo35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Calahorra II
1.54
Arnedo
1.40

Calahorra II creates 10% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 95 away

creates per match

Calahorra II
1.89
Arnedo
1.63

allows per match

Calahorra II
1.16
Arnedo
1.20

finishing

Calahorra II+0.00on par
Arnedo+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Calahorra II ↓

Arnedo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Calahorra II or draw
65%
Calahorra II or Arnedo
75%
Draw or Arnedo
59%

Winning margin

Calahorra II wins by 2+
20%
Arnedo wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Calahorra II 1+ goals
79%
Calahorra II 2+ goals
45%
Calahorra II 3+ goals
20%
Arnedo 1+ goals
75%
Arnedo 2+ goals
41%
Arnedo 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Calahorra II (draw refunded)
54%
Arnedo (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Calahorra II at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.16 · 92 matches

Arnedo away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.20 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Calahorra II attack 1.89 + Arnedo defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.54

Arnedo attack 1.63 + Calahorra II defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Calahorra II scores more
41%
level
25%
Arnedo scores more
35%

Calahorra II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Calahorra II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Calahorra II vs Arnedo

Calahorra II beat Arnedo 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on December 15, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio La Planilla in Calahorra.