Arnedo 2–4 Calahorra II: Result & Stats

Arnedo

2 – 4

HT: 2 – 3

Calahorra II

Adrián Ruiz 45+2'

Mario García 45'

Zaid Ouldeniymia 88'

Sergio Peredo 38', 23'

Álvaro Alcántara 15'

9/15/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 2Estadio Sendero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Arnedo47%

×Draw25%

Calahorra II28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ArnedoExpected goals in this matchCalahorra II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.15

Arnedo

1.57

Calahorra II

1.15

Arnedo creates 37% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 90 away

1.92

creates per match

1.48

0.81

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Arnedo

1.92

Calahorra II

1.48

allows per match

Arnedo

0.81

Calahorra II

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arnedo+0.00on par

Calahorra II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arnedo ↓

Calahorra II →

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Arnedo or draw

72%

Arnedo or Calahorra II

75%

Draw or Calahorra II

53%

Winning margin

Arnedo wins by 2+

24%

Calahorra II wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Arnedo 1+ goals

79%

Arnedo 2+ goals

46%

Arnedo 3+ goals

21%

Calahorra II 1+ goals

68%

Calahorra II 2+ goals

32%

Calahorra II 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Arnedo (draw refunded)

63%

Calahorra II (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Arnedo at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.81 · 95 matches

Calahorra II away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.23 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Arnedo attack 1.92 + Calahorra II defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.57

Calahorra II attack 1.48 + Arnedo defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 47%?"

Arnedo scores more

47%

level

25%

Calahorra II scores more

28%

Arnedo at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Arnedo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

23'

38'

45'

45+2'

46'

Iván Pascual← Angel Chacon

57'

Nacho Navajas← Sito Castro

57'

Neku Hurtado← Xavier Planas

64'

Carlos Moreno← Raúl Muñoz

79'

Manuel Ballestero← Alfonso Corbacho

87'

Miguel Baquero← Ángel Carmona

88'

Zaid Ouldeniymia

Arnedo

Calahorra

⚽

▼

▼

⚽2

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: Eduardo Hache

46'▲Iván Pascual←▼Angel Chacon

57'▲Nacho Navajas←▼Sito Castro

57'▲Neku Hurtado←▼Xavier Planas

79'▲Manuel Ballestero←▼Alfonso Corbacho

Arnedo substitutes

PascualNavajasHurtadoBallestero

Manager: Solabarrieta

64'▲Carlos Moreno←▼Raúl Muñoz

87'▲Miguel Baquero←▼Ángel Carmona

Calahorra II substitutes

MorenoBaquero

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16: Arnedo 2–4 Calahorra II

Calahorra II beat Arnedo 4-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on September 15, 2024.

Goals: Álvaro Alcántara (15'), Sergio Peredo (23', 38'), Mario García (45'), Adrián Ruiz (45+2'), Zaid Ouldeniymia (88').

The match was played at Estadio Sendero in Arnedo.

Arnedo vs Calahorra II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16: Arnedo 2–4 Calahorra II