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Calahorra II vs Alfaro — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Calahorra II
Calahorra II
CANC
00:00
Alfaro
Alfaro
4/26/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 35Estadio La Planilla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Calahorra II38%
×Draw24%
Alfaro37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Calahorra II
1.51
Alfaro
1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 92 home / 59 away

creates per match

Calahorra II
1.89
Alfaro
1.80

allows per match

Calahorra II
1.16
Alfaro
1.14

finishing

Calahorra II+0.00on par
Alfaro+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Calahorra II ↓

Alfaro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Calahorra II or draw
63%
Calahorra II or Alfaro
76%
Draw or Alfaro
62%

Winning margin

Calahorra II wins by 2+
19%
Alfaro wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Calahorra II 1+ goals
78%
Calahorra II 2+ goals
44%
Calahorra II 3+ goals
19%
Alfaro 1+ goals
77%
Alfaro 2+ goals
43%
Alfaro 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Calahorra II (draw refunded)
51%
Alfaro (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Calahorra II at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.16 · 92 matches

Alfaro away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.14 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Calahorra II attack 1.89 + Alfaro defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.51

Alfaro attack 1.80 + Calahorra II defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Calahorra II scores more
38%
level
24%
Alfaro scores more
37%

Calahorra II at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Calahorra II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Calahorra II vs Alfaro — Match Preview

Calahorra II face Alfaro on April 26, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Calahorra II host Alfaro at Estadio La Planilla.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.